General Election 2024 & COP29 Potential Impacts | Dods Political Intelligence

Blog by Dr. Joshua Wells

With the opportunity for a spring 2024 general election happening all but passed, it is likely that the forthcoming general election will be this November. The logic is quite seductive. The Conservative party conference happens from the 29th September – 2nd October 2024. Such conferences provide a chance to motivate grass root activists, generate media attention, and raise money. In short, they are a politically and financially prudent place to launch a general election.

Given that a general election lasts for at least 25 working days, there have been many educated guesses that the election will be early to mid-November. The 14^th is the guess of choice in our office (although I have opted for the 7^th). 

Why has the election been pushed back? 

There are also a set of additional reasons to suspect that Sunak would want the general election to happen in a November election. Given that this is likely to be his last experience of power, it gives him more time to build a legacy, such as getting a first flight to Rwanda, and to turn the polls around. One might wonder why he would not wait till the latest possible month of January 2025 to hold the election. The answer to this lies in the conventional wisdom that Brits are less happy in winter, and therefore less likely to vote favourably for any current government. 

How will COP29 affect the election? 

The office consensus for the general election date coincides with the dates of COP29, the 11th – 22^nd of November. 

COP29 presents the annual chance for the countries to try to make progress towards combating and limiting climate change.  

This blog will consider the implications of the potential clash between COP29 and the UK general election. 

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1. The election happens on the 14^th of November.

 In such a scenario it is likely that the UK will experience a change of government in the early days of COP29. This invites questions about how seriously the current government’s delegation would be taken, given the common place expectation for a new government post-election, and a consequently different negotiation approach. There are a further set of questions about how quickly a Labour government could influence the negotiations in the second week of COP, and whether, even if it were possible, would it be sufficiently high up a new government’s list of priorities. 

       2.   The Election happens just before COP29

In a scenario in which the general election happens just prior to COP29, there is a question over whether the UK delegation, largely composed of civil servants who will have been pursuing the previous government’s negotiation strategy for a year, will have the time to adapt to the potentially new negotiation strategy and international messaging of the new government. 

COPs held post-Paris Agreement have focused on realising the outstanding parts of the Paris framework. COP29 will focus on agreeing the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance, as well as continuing work on article 6 on carbon credits and the Just Transition Program. These are precise and complex issues which are not solved alone by a general desire to address climate change. If a new government is formed just before COP29, they will need to come armed with an understanding of these mechanisms as they enter high profile negotiations on the world stage.

      3.    The Election happens after COP29

In a scenario in which the election happens after COP29, there are questions as to how much influence the current UK government could exert during COP29. There are two main variables. Firstly, the expectation is that this government is in its last days. This might make the UK unappealing to engage with, as there will be uncertainty about whether any commitments or pledges made would bind a new Government. Secondly, Sunak’s track record of scepticism towards an accelerated transition to net zero, which might be brought into focus in the lead up to an election, might make the UK unattractive for ambitious countries to engage with.

There is a further challenge that if COP29 is happening in the 25 days during the election, when purdah- the convention by which the Government and Ministers do not make policy which might influence the election campaign is in effect. In this case, the government will have to be careful about making any commitments at COP29 which impact UK policy, including spending commitments. 

Ultimately COP29 is probably far down the list of variables that Sunak and his team are considering when determining the election date. However, COP29 may provide the chance for Sunak to be associated with any positive headlines that come out of it, or to portray himself as tough on “green crap” one more time. Nonetheless it appears that an election so close to COP29 could be impactful for one, if not both events. 

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